I'm worried

CBS released today, along with a statement about the Killian memos, a letter from Marcel Matley, who claims the signatures are authentic, and James Pierce, who claims the documents are authentic.

Neither of these men "shows his work." Matley does not explain why the Killian signatures on the memos are plainly different from every other Killian signature on the official record. Pierce does not address the many, many indications that the new memos are of modern origin. Matley does not say which signatures he authenticated. Pierce does not explain his methodology. Both documents are dated September 14, meaning neither document was actually used by CBS to authenticate the documents before publishing the story.

Nevertheless, CBS is likely to get away with it.

Unless the credibility of these experts is immediately questioned, the story will dissolve into a "he said/she said" situation. CBS has the fig leaf it needs to stand behind its forged documents. If something isn't done, and soon, CBS will have challenged the Internet... and won.

Please, somebody, explain to me why I shouldn't be extremely pessimistic.

UPDATE: Here are the contents of the Pierce letter

Examiner of Questioned Documents
James J. Pierce
111 Via Quito
Newport Beach, California 92668

PROFESSIONAL OPINION
9/14/04

As a result of my examinations and comparisons, it is my opinion, based on the available evidence, that the balance of the Jerry B. Killian signatures appearing on the photocopied questioned documents are consistent and in basic agreement.

In regard to the alance of the typed-written photocopied questioned documents, the same typed-face designs are strongly similar to corresponding samples that indicate the same typed-face existed prior to the date in question on the photocopied documents.

In my professional opinion, with what I know and have examined based on the photocopied questioned documents, the documents in question are authentic.

Respectfully submitted,
[SIGNATURE]
James J. Pierce
Forensic Document Examiner
Newport Beach, California

JJP

Here are the contents of the Matley letter:

A&M Matley Examiner of Documents and Handwriting

Marcel B. Matley	(3092 Army Street)	Phone: (415) 753-2832
Document Examination	Post Office Box 882401	Fax: (415) 753-3346
Publications, Seminars	San Francisco, CA 94188	Toll Free: 1-800-367-8403
	E-Mail: mmatley@aol.com

September 14, 2004

60-Minutes Wednesday
CBS News
555 West 57th Street
New York, NY 10019

RE: Killian Signatures; My File Ref. 040903-A

To Whom It May Concern:
I examined copies of documents bearing purported signatures of Jerry B. Killian. I observed nothing about the documents that could disprove their authenticity. I specifically addressed this question:
On the preponderance of the available handwriting evidence, are all the purported "Jerry B. Killian" signatures by the same person?
My expert opinion from examing the first documents submitted to me was confirmed by examination of the several that were later submitted to me.
I observed that all signatures had inconspicuous, significant similarities except one signature that had conspicuous, insignificant differences only. Such differences are inconsistent with either an imitated or a traced writing. However, there was a reasonable explanation for the differences. The signature fit the profile of a writing made under stress, and the text states severe stress. Therefore, the preponderance of the available handwriting evidence is that one writer made all signatures examined.
My work was more detailed, and authorities can be cited for the method and theory employed.

Sincerely,
[SIGNATURE]
Marcel B. Matley

Update 2!

CBS's statement references four attachments: not only the Matley and Pierce letters, but testimony from Bill Gannon and Richard Katz. These latter two attachments are not linked from the CBS web page containing the link to the statement and the other two attachments (headline: "GOP Slams CBS On Bush Memos"), but a little futzing with URLs finds them here and here. They're short excerpts from the on-air interviews with these two "experts":

Quotes From Interview With Bill Glennon, IBM expert and technology consultant CBS EVENING NEWS, 9/13/04

RATHER: Critics are saying that the documents can’t be authentic because typewriters at the time didn’t have the various features that show up in these documents. Is that correct in your experience or incorrect?

GLENNON: That is totally and 100 percent false. As I said, the IBM model executive, D Executive or the C Executive, did proportional type spacing. It also would do proportional spacing from line to line. And it also would do superscript printing for like the “th,” which you could, you could have ordered. It wasn’t a standard feature on all the standard IBM D Executives, but if you wanted that key, you could order it.

Quotes From Interview With Richard Katz, Software Designer CBS EVENING NEWS, 9/13/04

RICHARD KATZ: If you were doing this a week ago or a month ago on a normal LaserJet printer, it wouldn't work. You just couldn't--there just--the font wouldn't be available to you.

RATHER: Katz also noted that the documents have both the so-called superscript T-H and a regular-size T-H. That would be common on a typewriter, not a computer.

KATZ: There is one document from May of 1972 which contains a normal T-H at the top. To produce that in Microsoft Word, you would have to go out of your way to type the letters and then turn the T-H setting off or back over them and type them again.

You can smell the CBS-BS right through your computer screen.

Update 3

Both the title and the body of this article are, I admit, pessimistic. But we're not out yet; far from it. We have the facts on our side. We've also got overwhelming edges in numbers and brains. I didn't mean to imply that the cause is lost. But the enemy has launched a counterattack, and the counterattack will be decisive unless we respond immediately. Don your uniforms pajamas and get crackin'; there's work to do.

Update 4

Fisked by Ernest Miller of Corante.

Update 5

Who is John Galt James Pierce? Not much out there on the Web. Prestopundit, however, shows that Pierce is not infallible, and finds a testimonial page for a competing handwriting analysis firm that references Pierce. The defendant, represented by Pierce's competitor, alleged that signatures which Pierce had authenticated were fraudulent. According to the site, the jury was unpersuaded by Pierce and believed the signatures were, in fact, fake, notwithstanding Pierce's expert testimony.

Update 6

There is no Update 6.

Update 7

Right! What's all this then?

The WaPo is reporting that the CBS documents were faxed from Abilene, TX. Guess who lives in Abilene, TX? That's right... frothing Bush-hater Bill Burkett.

Update 8

Perhaps I ought to coalesce new information a little longer before posting it. Cut down on the number of updates. Anyway, a commentor with the shadowy name of Dave posts on Beldar's comment board that the address on Pierce's letterhead is a residence. This Google cache page has an image of the house across the street.